中文摘要：

为探讨肉牛养殖风险,基于1995—2013年河北等11个省区的非平衡面板数据,通过测算肉牛养殖利润、成本和产量的均值、方差和偏度,对肉牛养殖风险进行评估,并分析影响风险的相关因素。研究结果表明：我国肉牛养殖的利润和产量风险较大,利润和成本总体呈现左偏态,而产量则主要呈现右偏态,年际和区域间存在较大差异;利润风险大体呈现下降趋势,产量风险近年有所增加,成本风险较小且呈现下降趋势。养殖密度、疫病风险、产业优势、饲料结构、资本装备、养殖周期、技术进步和区域差异等因素,影响着肉牛养殖利润、成本和产量及其风险大小和发生概率。应警惕肉牛养殖左偏为常态的认识,建议合理调整载畜量,优化产业规模,调整饲料结构,加强资本装备水平,推进新型养殖模式,提升科技进步对肉牛产业贡献力度。

英文摘要：

Based on the 11 provinces unbalance panel data from 1995 to 2013,the mean,variance and skewness of profit,cost and production are calculated to evaluate and analyze beef cattle breeding risks and related influence factors.The results show that the risks of beef cattle＇s profit and production are more than that of cost.The distributions of profit and cost are skewness to left,while the production＇s is right.And there is a huge gap in different years and provinces.The risks of profit and cost are trending downward,while the risk of profit is rising in recent years.In addition,there are some factors which influence the beef cattle＇s profit,cost,production and their risks,such as stocking density,epidemic disease,industry advantage,feed structure,capital equipment,feeding cycle,technological progress and regional difference.Some suggestions are put forward in this study：The farmers must maintain vigilance to the left skewness distribution at all time;The grazing capacity,production scale and feed structure should be adjusted to be reasonable;The capital and equipment,new production mode and technological progress of beef cattle industry must be strengthened.