以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南高原为研究区,基于农户调查数据,分析了农户的气候变化感知对其适应意向的影响,为制定有效的气候变化适应政策提供依据.结果表明:纯农户、兼业户、非农户对气候变化的严重性的感知依次降低,但适应功效感知依次增强,且与非农户、纯农户相比,兼业户的可能性感知、自我效能感知与适应成本感知均较高;纯农户、兼业户、非农户对气候变化的积极适应意向趋于增强;气候变化风险感知、适应功效感知促使农户产生积极适应意向,而适应成本感知促使其产生消极适应意向.同时,农户拥有的耕地面积、牲畜数量、收入水平以及性格乐观程度与积极适应意向发生概率呈显著正相关,而固定资产拥有量、无偿现金援助机会、亲戚网及帮助网规模与其呈显著负相关.最后,提出了促使农户产生积极适应意向的对策建议及未来研究中需关注的问题.
In order to provide reference for formulating the effective policies of climate change, we selected Ganan Plateau located in the eastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the study area, and used the farmer' s investigation data to analyze the impact of the farmers' perception of climate change on their adaptation indention. The results showed that the farmer' s severity perception of cli- mate change declined from the pure agriculture household to the household with combined occupa- tion, and to the non-agriculture household, but the farmer' s adaptation efficacy perception was vice versa. Moreover, all of the perceived probability, self-efficacy and adaptation cost of the household with combined occupation were highest, those of the non-agriculture household were the second place and those of the pure agriculture household were the lowest. The farmer' s positive adaptation indention of climate change increased from the pure agriculture household to the household with combined occupation, and to the non-agriculture household. Increasing the perceived risk and adap- tation efficacy would promote the farmer's positive adaptation intention, but increasing the per- ceived adaptation cost would promote the farmers' passive adaptation intention. Meanwhile, the more the farmer' s agricultural acreage, livestock, income and optimistic degree were, the stronger the farmer' s positive adaptation intention was ; But the more the farmers' fixed capital, unpaid cash assistance opportunities, relative number and the number of people offering help were, the weaker the farmers' positive adaptation intention was. Finally, we pointed out the measures of pro- moting the positive adaptation intention and the problems on which we should focus in the future re- search.