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气候变化对中国的影响利弊
  • ISSN号:1002-2104
  • 期刊名称:《中国人口资源与环境》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:F12[经济管理—世界经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]
  • 作者机构:[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101, [2]国务院参事室,北京100006
  • 相关基金:国家科技支撑计划项目“重点领域气候变化影响与风险评估技术研发与应用”(编号:2012BAC19BOO);圈家重大科学研究计划项口“气候变化对社会经济系统的影响与适应策略”(编号:2012CB955700);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项课题“过去百年环境格局变化与影响”(编号:XDA05090307),“国际贸易政策及减排政策对中国的影响”(编号:XDA05150200).
中文摘要:

气候变化对自然生态系统、自然资源、三次产业、社会系统及自然灾害等领域的影响包括:气候变化对自然生态系统结构和功能产生深刻影响。如东北多年冻土区植被生产力下降,而宵藏高原则升高;气候变化导致华北、东北大部分地区降水减少以及许多北方河流径流量减少;由于气候变化。人们生产生活对能源的需求发生变化;气候变化导致的极端事件增加(包括频次与强度)、水资源短缺等问题对人体健康、疾病传播、重大工程等具有噩要影响;气候变化背景下。热量资源的改善有助于延长农作物生育期,但极端事件增加也会造成农业生产的不稳定;气候变化不仅可通过影响农业和自然资源而间接地对第二、三产业产生影响,而且气候变化减缓措施(如碳税、碳关税、碳交易等)的采用也将对社会经济产生广泛而深刻的影响。进一步,通过分析可发现,气候变化的影响具有显著的区域差异性。而且总体上利弊共存。但弊大于利。基于此.本文提出要趋利避窖,科学应对气候变化。实现“整体最优、长期受益”的有序适应目标;要强调定量适应,提出可操作性方案和可预期目标。并分析适应措施的不确定性;而且为提高我国未来综合竞争力,今后应采取更加主动的应对策略,如逐渐调整产业结构。加大减排技术研发,积极应对碳税、碳关税和碳市场对中国社会经济发展的影响等。

英文摘要:

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems, for example, the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation, while in the Tibetan Plateau, the vegetation productivity increased, owing to the improved thermal resource. Climate change led to the reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff. The public energy needs were changed because of climate change, e.g. the shorter heating period in winter. Climate change profoundlyinfluenced human health, pathophoresis and major projectsby increasing extreme events, including frequency and magnitude, and causing more serious water shortage. Under the background of climate change, although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period, more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity. Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industry through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources, but also climate change mitigation measures, such as carbon tax, tariff and trading, had extensive and profound influences on socioeconomic system. Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences. The impact had its pros and cons, while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages. Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change, we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change. Firstly, scientifically dealing with climate change needs to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve theorderly adaption to climate change, which is characterized with ' Overall best, long-term benefit'. Secondly, quantitative adaption should attach more attention, for example, proposing operational schemes and predictable goals, applying uncertainty analysis on adaption measures. Thirdly, more active coping strategy should be taken to enhance Ch

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期刊信息
  • 《中国人口资源与环境》
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 主管单位:科学技术部
  • 主办单位:中国可持续发展研究会 山东省可持续发展研究中心 中国21世纪议程管理中心 山东师范大学
  • 主编:刘燕华
  • 地址:济南市文化东路88号
  • 邮编:250014
  • 邮箱:liw@SDNU.EDU.CN
  • 电话:0531-86182968
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1002-2104
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:37-1196/N
  • 邮发代号:24-93
  • 获奖情况:
  • 1997曾荣获全国优秀科技期刊一等奖,连续三届获国...,2006年获国家自然科学基金委管理科学部认定的管理...
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库,中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:44931