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中文摘要：
应用系统辨识技术，基于ARX模型，建立了热连轧机液压压下控制系统的动态数学模型．系统的输入和输出数据分别采用轧机压下闭环系统电液伺服阀控制信号和辊缝位移信号；模型的参数估计采用最小二乘估计法（LSCE），模型阶的辨识采用赤池信息准则（AIC）．使用数据验证模型3步预测输出数据，并与实际测量数据对比研究了辨识模型的拟合精度，采用残差分析法检验了模型的有效性．仿真分析结果表明：辨识的模型是有效的．建立的轧机压下控制系统的数字化模型是计算机仿真分析的基础，也是控制器优化设计的依据，同时也为研究轧机振动特性提供了重要手段．
英文摘要：
The dynamic mathematical model of a hydraulic screw down AGC system was established by using system identification technology based on ARX model. The for con hot strip mill trolling signal from the AGC closed-loop system electro-hydraulic servo valve and the roll gap displacement signal were used as the system＇s input and output data respectively. Least squares estimation method （LSCE） was applied in model parameter-estimated process, and Akaike information criterion （AIC） was used in model order identification. Comparing the measured output with 3-step ahead predicted model output, the identification model fitting precision could be researched, as also the model validity was examined using residual analysis. The simulation results show that the identification model is valid. The identification model of hot rolling mill AGC system is the basis of the digital computer simulation analysis, which is also the basis of controller optimization design, and it provides an important groundwork to studying the vibration characteristics of rolling mill.
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