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中文摘要：
通过分析SHALSTAB和TRIGRS等浅层滑坡物理确定性模型存在的问题,提出了基于降雨入渗动态守恒的瞬态降雨入渗模型,该模型考虑了初期降雨过程、降雨历程以及饱和非饱和入渗过程,证明了SHALSTAB模型是该模型的特殊形式,并克服了TRIGRS模型参数繁多及一维入渗路径的问题。将无限边坡模型、瞬态降雨入渗模型和GIS进行耦合,研发了可用于大范围降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测的集成系统,根据边坡的地质条件、地形参数和降雨特征即可对降雨条件下浅层滑坡的危险性进行评估。
英文摘要：
The method that combines a hydrologic model and GIS for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslides is practicable.The limitations of the SHALSTAB and the TRIGRS models are discussed.In order to improve the SHALSTAB model,a simplified transient hydrologic model is proposed based on the dynamic conservation of rainfall mass.This model involves long term rainfall history,rainfall process and simplified saturated-unsaturated seepage.The SHALSTAB model is the special condition of this model.With the infinite slope model,transient hydrologic model and GIS system,an integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslides is proposed.And with this model the hazards risk of shallow landslides can be assessed by the geological,topographical and rainfall conditions.
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