中文摘要：

参考已有人口预测理论,针对大城市各个区县流动人口较多、人户分离、人口增长较快的特殊情况,构建了小区域人口预测模型,并以上海市青浦区为例,对2011—2020年户籍人口和常住人口的未来发展趋势进行了预测。

英文摘要：

By reviewing the existing population prediction theory,the paper builds a small-area-based population prediction model so as to deal with the particular issues in the counties and districts of metropolises——heavier floating population,more separations between family members and their permanent residency,and faster population increase.Then by taking Qingpu District,Shanghai as an example,it predicts the registered and resident population in 2011-2020.