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中文摘要：
针对我国豆类期货市场的的套期保值的绩效,选取了豆粕、大豆和豆油三种商品期货作为研究对象,利用OLS、ECM和ECM-BGARCH模型分别估计豆粕、大豆和豆油的最优套期保值比例,通过构建套期保值绩效指标来评价套期保值效果.实证表明,利用豆油期货来套期保值能达到最好的效果,但豆粕较差;比较3种方法所估计出的最优套期保值比例的套保效果,发现ECMBGARCH模型用于估计套期保值比例最为合适.
英文摘要：
To study the hedging performance of bean futures market, this paper selects three commodity futures： soybean meal, soybean and soybean oil as research objects. Models such as OLS, ECM, and ECM-BGARCH are used to estimate the hedge ratio, and hedging performance indicators are constructed to evaluate the hedging effectiveness. Empirical results show that the best effects can be achieved by using soybean oil futures to carry out the hedging, while soybean meal show a poorer result. Comparing the hedging performance of different optimal hedge ratios estimated by three methods mentioned, we find that ECM-BGARCH is the most suitable model to estimate the hedge ratio.
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