使用NCEP 1°×1°6h再分析格点资料和气象台站实测降水资料,采用WRF中尺度数值模式,对2005年8月14日20时至15日08时发生在十堰市的一次大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟与诊断分析,并着重分析了大暴雨的成因。结果表明:此次大暴雨是在西太平洋副热带高压、中高纬西风槽合理配置以及稳定有利的环流形势下发生的,同时与台风低压活动关系密切;东南风急流将低纬度地区暖湿气流输送到高纬度地区,使台风低压长时间维持,为强降水发生发展提供了水汽来源;低层辐合、高层辐散的配置有利于对流发展和低层水汽向高空输送;螺旋度正值中心的出现对未来3h强降水出现有一定的预示作用,螺旋度正值对暴雨落区有较好的指示性,主要暴雨区出现在螺旋度正值中心前方。
By using NCEP reanalysis data got every hour with 1°×1°grid resolution and AWS rain data, a heavy rainstorm occurred in Shiyan from 14 to 15 August 2005 is simulated by the meso-scale numerical model(WRF) and the heavy rainstorm reasons are analyzed in detail. The result shows that this heavy rainstorm occurred for the subtropical high pressure, the west wind trough in middle-high latitude, the steady circulation and the low pressure of typhoon. The warm-wet steam transformed from low latitude to high latitude by south-east jet makes typhoon persisting longer time and provides water vapor source to heavy rainstorm .The high-level divergence and low-level convergence are favorable to the convection development and the water vapor transformation from low-level to high-level. The positive heticity maximum indicates the heavy rain in the future 3 hour and the rainstorm region mainly located in front of the positive helicity center.