中文摘要：

利用黑河洪峰及黑河上、中游降水和气温资料，采用线性倾向方法、功率谱分析方法、滑动t-检验法、累计距平法、Cramer’s法以及相关统计方法等，分析了黑河年最大洪峰流量及其出现时间的演变特征及其原因。结果表明：黑河年最大洪峰出现时间变化呈现波动性，并且与上游气温变化趋势基本一致，其突变年在1983年前后，突变前年最大洪峰时间是推迟的，突变后则明显提前，黑河年最大洪峰出现时间与气候变暖关系密切，随着全球气候变暖，黑河年最大洪峰出现时间存在提前的趋势。黑河年最大洪峰流量的时间演变以波动形式为主，存在准3年和准11年的变化周期，其突变在1973年前后；黑河年最大洪峰流量与洪峰出现日前三天黑河上游的降水多少有关；黑河年最大洪峰与年平均流量的历史演变趋势也具有很好的相似性。

英文摘要：

Based on the data of Heihe River＇s annual maximum flood peak, precipitation and temperature in upper and middle side of Heihe, using linear tendency estimation, power spectrum, slip t-examine, Cramer＇s and relevant statistics, Heihe River＇s annual maximum flood peak flow, its appear time characteristic, and causes were analyzed. The result shows that the time evolution of annual maximum flood peak flow of Heihe is not stable, its sudden change year is in 1983. The change is in accordance with the temperature change of Heihe upper reach. The appearing time of annual maximum flood peak flow is postponed before the sudden change, and obviously ahead after the sudden change. The relation of the appearing time of Heihe＇s annual maximum flood peak and climate warming is close. Along with global climate warming, Heihe＇s annual maximum flood peak tends to appear ahead. The time evolution of Heihe＇s annual maximum flood peak flow is characterized by undulation with about a 3 years and 11 years period, its sudden change is around 1973. The maximum flood peak flow is correlated with the precipitation of Heihe＇s upside 3 days before flood peak appearing. The development tendency of annual maximum flood peak and annual average flow is similar.