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中文摘要：
为了准确、简便地预测水平井见水规律，结合塔里木油田水平井的生产动态资料，就常用的6种水驱特征曲线对水平井含水上升规律的预测进行适用性筛选。6种水驱特征曲线对水平井含水率预测适用性分析及预测能力分析表明，应用水驱特征曲线法预测水平井的可采储量、含水上升趋势是可行的。其中张金庆曲线、俞启泰曲线是一组由凹型变为S型再到凸型的曲线系列，在预测水平井含水上升规律中，具有应用范同广、精度较高的特点，可有效地预测各种含水上升形态的水平井见水趋势。通过对塔里木油田水平井含水率上升规律研究认为，同一油田含水上升规律相同，俞启泰曲线b值相近。通过研究俞曲线b值，可有效预测油田水平井含水上升规律。
英文摘要：
In order to accurately and simply predict the water breakthrough laws of horizontal wells, by integrating the performance data from the horizontal wells in Tarim Oilfield, the applicability choosing is conducted for the six commonly used water flooding characteristic curves to forecast the water rising laws of the horizontal wells. The above feasibility and prediction capacity analyses show that it is feasible to predict reserves and watercut rise by the above curves for horizontal wells, among these curves, Zhang Jinqing Curve （ Zhang Curve） and Yu Qitai Curve （Yu Curve ） are all series curves that vary from concave to S and then to protruding. In the course of the rising laws, these two curves possess the following widely applied and highly accurate features, so they can effectively predict all kinds of watercut rising trends with various forms. By means of the law study of this oilfield, it is thought that the laws are the same for the same oilfield, and the b value of Yu Curve is similar. Through studying the above value, the watercut rising laws for the horizontal wells can be effectively predicted.
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