大量的能源消耗推动经济快速增长的同时,也带来了严重的环境污染问题,追求能源-经济-环境(3E)的可持续发展愈发被人们所重视。在3E问题相关理论和国内外研究认识的基础上,充分考虑能源-经济-环境序列非平稳性,合理选取能源消费、经济增长、环境污染的相关指标,以北京市为例,搜集1991年—2013年相关统计数据,基于VAR模型针对3E问题建立经济-能源和能源-环境二元子系统,并进行多变量协整分析。经协整分析,能源消费与经济增长、环境污染之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,粗放式的能源消耗导致恶劣的环境污染问题,并将反向影响经济社会的发展。
With the rapid growth of the economy promoted by a large amount of energy consumption, environmental pollution problem is getting worse and there is a growing emphasis on achieving the sustainable development of Energy-Economy-Envir- onment (3E). Based on the related theory and research status of 3E issues, the paper gave full consideration to the non-stationary sequence of Energy-Economy-Environment, selected the relevant indicators of energy consumption, economic growth, environme- ntal pollution, collected relevant statistical data of Beijing from 1991 to 2013, established economy-energy binary subsystem and energy-environment binary subsystem based on VAR model, then implemented the multivariate co-integration analysis. It can be obtained by co-integration that there is a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between energy consumption and econ- omic growth, environmental pollution. Extensive energy consumption leads to severe environmental pollution and adversely affect economic and social development.