中文摘要：

将提前期看作供应链系统的内生变量,通过对具有自回归需求和采用定购点策略的生产与控制系统的详细分析,提出了解决内生提前期与定购量交互作用的迭代程序。通过在迭代程序中嵌入位相型分布拟合、生产排队模型以及马尔可夫链的分析,可以得到提前期分布的最终收敛值。在数据实例中,将增益系数引入定购点策略中,达到平滑定购量大小从而降低其波动性的目的。然而,供应链系统定购量方差的减小对实际库存方差起到反面的作用。通过考虑定购策略对提前期的影响,可以将供应链系统中牛鞭效应和实际库存方差的冲突转化为双赢的局面。

英文摘要：

The production and inventory system with endogenous lead- time are analyzed. When facing AR（ 1 ） demand and using order-up-to policy, an iterative procedure is presented to solve the dependency problem between orders pattern and the lead-time. By embedding the analysis of phase type distribution ,queuing model and markov chain to the iterative procedure, the convergence value of the final lead-time distribution is obtained. In the numerical examples ,the order variability is dampened by introducing the smoothing parameters to the order-up-to policy. However,reducing the order variability has a negative impact to the net stock variance. By the conflict taking the influence of the order policy to the lead-time,a win-win solution is obtained to get rid of between bullwhip effect and the net stock variability in supply chain system.