中文摘要：

起始的错误和模型错误是预言错误的来源。在这研究，作者计算有条件的非线性的最佳的不安( CNOP )打起始的错误和非线性的强迫的单个向量( NFSV )-Zebiak藤条的类型趋势错误关于 El Ni 当模特儿? o 事件和分析他们为 El Ni 的预言错误上的联合效果? o 事件。CNOPtype 起始的错误(NFSV 类型趋势错误) 代表为 El Ni 在预言无常上有最大的效果的起始的错误(模型错误)? 在完成式下面的 o 事件当模特儿(完美的起始的条件) 情形。然而， CNOP 类型起始的错误和 NFSVtype 趋势错误是什么时候，同时在模型，考虑了他们引起的预言错误没作为期望的作者被放大。明确地， CNOP 类型起始的错误的联合模式引起的预言错误和 NFSV 类型趋势错误比 NFSV 类型趋势错误引起的那些大一些。这个事实强调需要调查为 El Ni 引起最大的预言错误的起始的错误和趋势错误的最佳的联合模式 ? o 事件。

英文摘要：

Initial errors and model errors are the source of prediction errors. In this study, the authors compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）-type initial errors and nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）- type tendency errors of the Zebiak-Cane model with respect to El Nifio events and analyze their combined effect on the prediction errors for E1 Nino events. The CNOP- type initial error （NFSV-type tendency error） represents the initial errors （model errors） that have the largest effect on prediction uncertainties for E1 Nifio events under the perfect model （perfect initial conditions） scenario. How- ever, when the CNOP-type initial errors and the NFSV- type tendency errors are simultaneously considered in the model, the prediction errors caused by them are not am- plified as the authors expected. Specifically, the predic- tion errors caused by the combined mode of CNOP-type initial errors and NFSV-type tendency errors are a little larger than those caused by the NFSV-type tendency er- rors. This fact emphasizes a need to investigate the opti- mal combined mode of initial errors and tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events.