中文摘要：

根据聚合分解的思想,以能量的形式将水库水电站群聚合成一个等效水库,分析了等效水库各能量因子的物理特性和统计特性,建立了等效水库的调度函数模型,采用逐步回归分析提取调度规则;建立以时段末蓄能最大为目标的出力分配模型,采用遗传算法求解该模型,将通过调度函数得到的时段总决策分配到各个水库水电站。在综合考虑库群各水电站自身约束和库群间电力、水力联系以及综合利用要求的基础上,运用调度函数指导库群长系列模拟运行,通过对模拟运行结果的评价,证实了调度函数具有良好的可操作性和实用价值。

英文摘要：

In this paper,all the reservoirs are regarded as an equivalent one in form of energy based on an idea of large-scale system aggregation-decomposition.We can obtain an operating function through multi-factors stepwise regression analysis and establish an operating function model of the equivalent reservoir by analyzing on the physics and statistics of the energy factors.We can also establish an output allocation model with a target of maximum storage at the end of period considered,and determine the allocation output to each hydropower station by general decision-making in each period with the operating function obtained.The operating function can also be used to guide operation simulation of long-term runoff series,with consideration of the constraints by hydroelectric powers and the hydraulic inter-connections and comprehensive utilization of all the hydropower stations.Results show that the operating function provides a new way for operation simulation.