突发事件演化是指事件发生后,在其与所处的自然和社会环境的各种因素相互作用下,进而引发起其它突发事件,最终形成了事件链或事件网络。通过分析和总结近年来关于突发事件演化的相关研究,将其划分为3种主要研究类型进行概述:基于生命周期的演化阶段研究、演化模式及演化分析方法研究。研究发现,当前突发事件演化研究面临以下问题和挑战:微观层面分析不够深入、缺少有效的量化分析、与社会系统相互作用的分析不够,最后指出了未来研究趋势。
Emergency event evolution means that the event will interact with factors in the natural and social envi- ronment, and lead to other emergency event, finally form events chain or events net. After analyzing and summari- zing the researches on emergency event evolution in recent years, this paper surveys it from three main research types: researches on evolution stage based on life cycle; researches on evolution mode and researches on evolution analysis methods. The problems and challenges existing in emergency event evolution research are as follows: micro level analysis is not deep enough ; there is a lack of effective quantized analysis ; the analysis of the interaction with the social system is not enough. Finally the paper gives the major future research trends.