本文使用中国35个大中城市2003—2008年土地市场和房地产市场数据,考察了土地出让方式对地价和房价的影响。描述性分析发现,地价房价比不高,均值为10.23%;土地出让金占地方财政收入比重均值为62.49%,已成为地方政府的“第二财政”;协议出让面积占比最高,其次是挂牌出让和行政划拨,最小是拍卖和招标,土地出让存在明显的“双轨制”。实证发现,房价主要是由供求决定的,而非地价和土地出让方式决定的。因此,控制房价过快上涨,主要是调节房地产供求关系,而非一味地降低地价乃至否定土地的“招拍挂”制度。实证还发现,地价主要是由房价决定的,而非土地出让方式决定的。这表明,“招拍挂”制度并未导致地价的快速上涨,高房价是“地王”出现的主因。
Using the land market and real estate market datasets of 35 large and medium cities of China from 2003 to 2008, this paper investigates the impact of various land sale pattern upon the land and real estate prices. The descriptive analysis indicates that the average ratio of land price to real estate price is merely 10. 23%. Secondly, land revenue in municipal revenue accounts for 62. 49% on average, which implies the land revenue has become the second revenue resource for municipal governments. Thirdly, the ratio of agree- ment land sale accounts for the highest, the ratios of listing and administrative assignment land sales follow the second, and the ratios of tender and auction land sale are lowest. Hence, the land sale regime is characterized by double-track paradigm. The results show that real estate price is determined by supply and demand aspects rather than land price and land sale patterns. Therefore, in order to prevent real estate price from increasing dramatically, the policy makers should reconcile the relationship of supply and demand, but not barely reduce land price or deny current land-bidding system. In addition, land price is primarily determined by real estate price rather than land sale patterns, which indicates that the higher land price results from higher real estate price rather than the land-bidding system.