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中文摘要：
通过对传统GM（1,1）模型的初始条件进行优化,利用复化的Simpson数值积分公式构造背景值,以及对残差序列进行修正,建立优化的GM（1,1）模型,并给出优化模型的精度评价方法和标准。以小浪底大坝的变形实测数据为例,进行基于传统GM（1,1）预测模型和优化GM（1,1）预测模型的计算比较。结果表明,基于优化的GM（1,1）预测模型精度更高。
英文摘要：
Based on the optimization to the initial conditions of the traditional model GM（1,1）,the use of background value in construction of compound Simpson numerical integral formula,and the modification on the residual sequence,the optimized GM（1,1）model is proposed in this paper.Finally,on the basis of measured data of Xiaolangdi dam＇s deformation,the calculation results based on traditional GM（1,1）forecasting model with based on optimized GM（1,1）forecasting model are compared.The results show that the based on optimized GM（1,1）prediction model of the accuracy is better than the based on traditional GM（1,1）forecasting model.
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