针对人口普查质量评估中对普查登记人口名单及其质量评估调查人口名单进行比对,以找出二者匹配人数构造双系统估计量或单系统估计量可能出现的比对误差问题,提出测度比对误差及对人口普查覆盖误差估计影响的研究目标。为实现上述目标,采用文献解读法,以及吸纳国际相关前沿研究成果的研究思路,研究比对误差的总差异率、净差异率和相对误差率等问题。研究认为:内含比对误差的人口普查覆盖误差估计值不能真实反映人口普查登记工作的质量,影响普查数据用户的决策;欲测度比对误差对人口普查质量评估结论的影响,可从人口普查质量评估调查样本中抽取子样本再次比对(评估比对),然后比较评估比对与原始比对结果的差异;欲测度比对误差对人口普查净误差的影响,可分别计算原始比对和评估比对的双系统估计量,然后求二者之差;欲测度比对误差对人口普查错误登记人数(或遗漏人数)的影响,可分别构造原始比对和评估比对的错误登记人数(或遗漏人数)估计量,然后求二者之差;在中国开展比对误差测量工作势在必行,急需进行比对工作的基础建设。
Aiming at the potential matching errors which exist in comparing census registration list with quality assessment survey registration list to get matched count of the two lists,which are used to construct dual system estimator or one system estimator,the goal of the study is put forward to measure the matching error and its influence on census coverage error.In order to achieve the above goal,the paper adopts the method of literature interpretation,as well as the research ideas of absorbing international advanced relative results.Based on this idea,total error rate,net difference rate and relative error of the matching error are studied et al.Through the above study,the following conclusions are drawn:estimates of the census coverage error which contain matching error can not truly reflect the census registration quality and affect the decision of census data users;in order to measure the influences of matching errors on accuracy of population quality evaluation conclusions,sub-samples is firstly drawn from the sample of the census quality evaluation survey and evaluation matching is carried out,then comparing and analyzing the difference between the evaluation matching and production matching;in order to measure the influences of matching errors on the census net error,the dual system estimator are firstly calculated under the condition of the production matching and evaluation matching,and then the difference between them is calculated;in order to measure the influences of matching errors on the census erroneous enumeration or omission,the census erroneous enumeration estimator or omission estimator are calculated under the condition of the production matching and evaluation matching,and then the difference between them is calculated;it is imperative to carry out comparative error measurement in China.First of all,we must do a good job of the basic construction of the comparison work.