当前农民收入中农业收入和非农收入已平分秋色,影响农民收入增长不仅受农业内部因素影响还受外部环境的影响。本文以青岛市为例,从农民收入的来源方面入手,运用灰色关联理论通过对1994~2009年青岛市农民收入数据分析,探讨影响青岛市农民收入的主要因素。分析结果认为,近年来青岛市农民农业收入的持续增长主要得益于农业的持续发展以及农产品价格上涨和农业结构调整。但整体看来,农业生产力水平不高,农业发展缺乏有效资金投入;二三产业发展对农民非农收入有重要影响;农村基础设施建设和城镇化发展速度对非农收入影响比较大;受农民非农就业机会以及文化素质制约非农收入的持续提高面临风险。建议通过提高农业生产效益,加大对农业和农村的财政扶持,加快推进城镇化进程。鼓励农村二、三产业发展,加强教育投入等措施促进青岛市农民增收。
Currently, peasants' income is evenly divided in agricultural and non-agricultural fields, which affected not only by agricultural internal factors, but also by the external environment. Taking Qingdao as an example and applying gray correlation theory, this thesis studied the key factors affecting peasants" income from the perspective of peasants" income sources. The result, firstly, showed that the growth of peasants" agricultural income in recent years was due to agriculture development, the growing price of agricultural products and agricultural structure adjustment while the agricultural productivity was not high and agricultural development lacked effective funding investments. Secondly, the secondary and tertiary industries had great impacts on non-agricultural income; rural infrastructure construction and urbanization rate also had large effects on non-agricultural income; the off-farm employment opportunities and cultural quality constraint non-agricultural income. At last, to increase peasants" income in Qingdao City, advice was proposed as followings: improving the agricultural productivity, increasing investments in agriculture and countryside, accelerating urbanization, developing rural secondary and tertiary industry, and strengthenning education investment.