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中文摘要：
蒙特卡罗（MC）方法被广泛运用于无线通信系统的误码率仿真，由于信源、信道和系统发收机处理单元等存在时间相关性，仿真结果不服从经典MC估计，无法用已知结论评估其置信度，此问题目前尚缺乏一般性解决方法。首先提出了“平稳有限相邻相关条件”的概念，推导了该条件下MC估计置信度的若干结论，分析指出无线通信仿真通常满足该条件，最后基于该条件提出了一种通用仿真置信度分析方法，该方法在不增加仿真时间复杂度的前提下，在获得误码率估计的同时，可以给出估计的方差、置信区间、最大相对误差等置信度指标。该方法被运用于WiMAX系统的仿真中，仿真结果验证了结论的正确性。
英文摘要：
Monte Carlo （MC） simulation is widely used for estimating bit error rate （BER） performance on wireless communications. Due to the time correlation characteristic brought by data source, fading channel, and other memory processing units, the simulation result does not follow traditional MC conditions and its confidence probability cannot be evaluated by existed conclusions. A universal method was brought forward to evaluate the variance and other confidence parameters of the MC result based on the characteristic of wireless communication simulations that one sample could be seemed as uncorrelated to another when the distance between them was large enough. All the conclusions have been demonstrated by simulations in typical WiMAX systems.
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