中文摘要：

根据产业转型预警多层次、多维度及动态性适应性的要求,建立了“经济—环境—资源—社会（Economic-Environment-Resource-Society,EERS）”预警指标概念模型,运用正态云理论对淄博博山老工业区因素2006—2014年产业转型成效进行纵向评估,并对2018年产业转型成效进行动态预警。研究表明,博山老工业区产业转型成效水平从“较差”至“一般”再到“良好”等级,呈现逐步提升的趋势,但产业转型成效总体水平仍处于“理想”等级以下;2018年博山老工业区产业转型成效为“理想”预警,但仍具有较大提升空间,特别是社会固定资产投资低下、人均可利用水资源较少、受高等教育人口比例较低等因素将严重制约其后期发展,是影响产业转型的主要短板因素。而基于正态云理论的城市老工业区产业转型预警模型呈现出了较高的适用性与灵活性。

英文摘要：

The construction of early warning index system is the foundation of implementing regional early warning. Therefore, the u Economic-Environment-Resource-Society （EERS）^ model is established according to the require-ments of industrial transformation to reflect the ecological status and development trend. Boshan is an old industrial area in Zibo City, Shandong Province, which is selected as the object of research. At the same time, the normal cloud theory is adopted as the research methods. Then, the industrial transformation effects are evaluated from 2006 to 2014,and are analyzed by the early warning model in 2018 based on the above theory and methods. Results show that the industrial transformation of urban old industrial area has exhibited a gradual ascending trend, from “poor” to ‘‘average” to ‘‘good” on the rating scale,but its overall level is still lower than the ‘‘ideal” level. In ad-dition ,it still has a large room to improve in 2018, which will reach the ‘‘ideal” level eventually. Furthermore, multiple factors tend to affect the industrial transformation process, such as low social investment in fixed assets, poor availability of water resources per capita and low ratio of the higher education population. Therefore, only when these factors are reasonable controlled and attended to through a series of specific measures, can the economic system,environmental system, resource system and social system undergo a harmonious and unified development momentum. Meanwhile, the early-warning model based on normal cloud theory for industrial transformation of the urban old industrial area proves to have dynamic adaptability and flexibility.