中文摘要：

利用黑龙江省74个气象站1971—2005年夏季气温和2004—2007年的农作物受灾面积资料，采用信息扩散理论对黑龙江省低温冷害、干旱和洪涝等主要气象灾害进行了风险评估与区划研究，对干旱和洪涝采用受灾指数评估方法。研究结果表明：黑龙江省低温冷害风险概率主要表现为北部大于南部，一般冷害风险概率表现为西南地区大于全省其它地区，严重冷害风险概率则表现为北部地区最高，中部及东南部地区次之；黑龙江省干旱灾害风险概率西部和北部地区明显高于南部和东部地区；黑龙江省洪涝灾害风险概率则表现为中部地区大于全省其它地区，中部伊春地区为全省洪涝灾害高风险区。

英文摘要：

Heilongjiang Province is an important commercial grain production base in China; it is also one of high frequency regions with low temperature and cold damage, arid and flood disasters in our nation. It can provide im- portant basis for the government in disaster prevention and reduction through the research about occurrence situation and spatial distribution of disaster risk. This paper did the research of risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province by using information diffusion theory with the help of 35 years＇summer tempera- ture data of 74 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2005 and crop disaster area data in Heilongjiang Province from 2004 to 2007. It is the first of the risk assessment of low temperature and cold damage based on the relevant stand- ard and the risk assessment of arid and flood disasters by using disaster index. Some research results are as follows ： the risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is higher than that in the southern re- gion, the risk probability of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwest region is the highest, the se- rious risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is the highest, followed by the cen- tral and southeast region,, the arid risk probability in the western and northern region is higher than that in the southern and eastern region; when risk level is 5% , ahnost all the counties and cities in Heilongjiang Province would take place arid disaster; when risk level up to 25% , the risk probability has been decreased, high risk main- ly locates in the northern and western part of Heilongjiang Province, the central and eastern region has been de- creased obviously; when risk level is 50%, high risk region only locates in the western part; the flood disaster risk probability in the central region is the highest, the Yichun region is the high - risk region for flood disaster in Hei- longjiang Province. When risk level is 5% , the flood disasters ma