中文摘要：

针对强（大）震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题，作者提出了孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法．将汶川地震区前瞻性强震四要素预测结果（包含震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值）与2013年4月20日发生在四川省雅安市芦山县的Ms7．0级地震进行比较，认为该地震已被作者所提出的理论方法成功预测．研究表明：芦山“4·20”7．0级地震是汶川“5·12”地震的一次大余震事件，表明该预测理论及方法能可靠地应用于大震及某些大余震事件的预测．此外，本文对汶川地震区未来地震趋势进行了分析．

英文摘要：

Aiming at whether the strong or large earthquake can be predicted and how to predict, the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method were recently developed by us. Based on this new method, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for Wenchuan seismic zone are obtained and have been published in advance. In comparison with the Lushan Ms 7. 0 earthquake in Sichuan on 20 April 2013, it is shown that the Lushan Ms 7. 0 earthquake has been predicted successfully according to the theory and method developed by us. Moreover, it was found that the Lushan Ms 7. 0 earthquake is an aftershock of Wenchuan earthquake. Thus, we think the new earthquake prediction theory has wide applicability for the large earthquake including some large aftershock. Finally, the earthquake situation in future is also analyzed for the Wenehuan seismic zone.