本文将利息税引入拉姆齐模型,求出稳态人均消费路径。利用经验数据动态模拟与实证分析,发现调整利息税率对我国人均消费的影响有两种效应:“从短期来看,降低利息税率将使人均消费减少;从长期来看,降低利息税率将提高我国稳态人均消费水平”。因此,在当前急需拉动内需之时,我国不应降低而应提高利息税率。
In the paper, the interest taxation is introduced to the Ramsey model, and the saddle path of steady consumption is obtained. With the dynamic simulation of empirical data and empirical analysis, adjusting the interest taxation rate has two effects: in the short term, lowering interest taxation rate will reduce per capita consumption; in the long run, lowering interest taxation rate will raise steady-state per capita consumption. As a result, interest taxation rate should not be reduced, but be raised in the circumstance to stimulate domestic demand in the short term.