位置:成果数据库 > 期刊 > 期刊详情页
去趋势预置白方法对径流序列趋势检验的影响
  • ISSN号:1003-1243
  • 期刊名称:《水力发电学报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P333.6[天文地球—水文科学;水利工程—水文学及水资源;天文地球—地球物理学]
  • 作者机构:[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,西安710054, [2]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,西安710054, [3]陕西省江河水库管理局,西安710018
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金(51379014);陕西省科学技术研究发展计划项(2014KJXX-54);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(310829152018)
中文摘要:

利用Mann-Kendall(MK)方法进行水文序列趋势检验时,去趋势预置白(TFPW)作为处理水文序列自相关性影响的重要方法之一,其处理过程的合理性及方法的适用性在变化环境下备受关注。本文以三种具有典型趋势特征的实测年径流资料为研究对象,开展TFPW-MK检验(6种去趋势方法并2种预置白方法),并与传统MK法及改进MK法进行对比,探讨不同TFPW方法在变化环境下的适用性。结果显示不同TFPW方法对典型趋势径流序列的MK检验结果影响不一;在AR(1)预置白处理时,不同去趋势方法表现较为接近;而在去除AR(n)(n表示所有显著自相关阶数)时,仅直线滑动平均法(LMA)法和直线滑动回归平均法(LRMA)法表现较为合理,传统TFPW方法出现失真现象。综合对比表明基于LRMA并AR(n)的TFPW方法表现最优,而传统TFPW法仅在AR(1)条件下可获得较为稳定的趋势检验值。

英文摘要:

Trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) is a key method for removing the effect of autocorrelation when a non-parametric Mann-KendaU (MK) trend test is used in anatysis of river runoff series. However, its rationality and applicability are questioned in the cases that some hydrological changes occur in a changing environment, thus catching researchers' increasingly attention. In this study, we adopted a hybrid TFPW for data-preprocessing prior to applying the MK trend test to evaluate its performance in analysis of the runoff series featured with hydrological changes, focusing on six detrending measures, i.e. the slope method (SM), EMD method, first order differential method (FD), log-linear detrending method (LLD), 5-point linear moving average method (LMA), and linear regression moving average method (LRMA). This approach is coupled with two pre-whitening methods, one for removing autocorrelation AR(1) only, and the other for removing all the AR(n)s where n stands for all the lag orders of significance. A case study was taken testing the runoff series gauged at the three gauge stations ofDingjiagou, Shenmu and Suide in northern Shaanxi that represent three types of trend changes in the series respectively. These calculations, as results of different hybrid TFPW-MK testing, were compared with those by conventional and modified MK methods. The comparison shows that different hybrid TFPWs give different MK test results of the runoff series. All the detrending methods are good and similar when only AR(1) is removed, while when all the AR(n)s are removed, only LMA and LRMA work satisfactorily and even the SM, if coupled with the conventional TFPW, works poorly deviating far away from the real case. This indicates that among all the TFPW methods, LRMA with AR(n) being retained is the best owing to less autocorrelation information lost in its detrending process and more autocorrelation removed in its pre-whitening. In addition, the conventional TFPW-MK, or SM coupled with the

同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
期刊信息
  • 《水力发电学报》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学技术协会
  • 主办单位:中国水力发电工程学会
  • 主编:李庆斌
  • 地址:北京清华大学新水利馆211室
  • 邮编:100084
  • 邮箱:
  • 电话:010-62783813
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1003-1243
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-2241/TV
  • 邮发代号:
  • 获奖情况:
  • 优秀学术期刊三等奖
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 荷兰文摘与引文数据库,美国剑桥科学文摘,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:12057