基于地理空间视角,根据第四、五、六次人口普查数据,运用统计分析、空间分析以及多元逐步回归,探究了东北地区1990~2010年人口变化的时空间特征及其影响因素,以期为东北地区推进新一轮振兴战略并实现人口、经济、社会、环境协调发展提供依据。研究结果表明:①研究时段内东北地区人口增长率低于全国平均水平且增速趋缓,尤其是进入新世纪以后,人口增长愈加乏力。②区域内部人口增长的主要动力不同。人口的迁移流动对人口空间格局重塑起到决定性作用,人口南移已是东北地区人口空间演变的主要趋势。③人口分布的“核心—外围”梯级格局表现出“极化”发展态势,人口空间分布的非均衡性加剧。④人口增减变化空间配置不均匀,人口减少单元明显多于人口增加单元。大部分地级市市区人口快速增加,而中心城市周边市县、资源型市县以及边境市县的人口则不断减少。⑤经济水平、行政级别、就业水平、医疗水平、产业结构均在不同程度上对1990~2010年东北地区的人口变化具有显著影响,而经济水平对人口变化的牵引作用最强。
Based on the perspective of geographic space,through mathematical statistics,spatial analysis,multiple linear regression and other methods,this paper researches spatial pattern of population change and its influencing factors in Northeast China from1990to2010according to the fourth to sixth national census data,with a view to achieving coordinated development among its population,economy,society and environment.The results reveal that:①The population growth rate in Northeast China is lower than the national average during the study period,but is still increasingly decreasing.This trend becomes even more apparent in the new century,for the continuously decline in natural population growth rate and expanding size of net emigration.②There are obvious differences between birth and immigration over region inside,and the dynamic mechanism of population growth is also different.In general,moving to south is the significant trend of population spatial evolution.③Despite the“core-periphery”gradient pattern has not been transformed,population distribution manifests dramatically“polarization”pattern.Because of the concentration of capital and economic activities,population distribution also hasshowed polarization situation.This has aggravated unbalanced spatial pattern of population actually.④Units of population increase and decrease relocate unevenly.Most of urban districts are population increase units,while population decrease units consist of three parts,including resource-based units,small towns around the central cities and the frontier regions.Under the background of rapid urbanization,the central city obviously proves might be“near domain deprivation”at population.⑤Quantitative analysis by running multivariate linear regression model indicates that economic development,industrial structure,employment levels,medical services and administrative level are all have significant impacts on population change during1990~2010in Northeast China,but the economic pursuit factor has performed an more import