中文摘要：

北太平洋海温第二主导模态是一个呈现东北一西南“＋-”偶极子型变化的海温模态。被定义为维多利亚模态（VM）。本文利用1979-2014年的逐月资料，通过偏相矣分析及回最分析等气象统计方法，探究了北半球前冬VM与春季美国东南部及墨西哥湾（SEUSA及GM，（24—34°N，95—80°W））降水之间的尖系，结果表明两者之间存在显著的正相尖尖系。当前冬为正（负）VM事件，则在随之而来的春季，SEUSA及GM区域往往会出现降水增加（减少）。SEUSA及GM区域的环流系统对前冬正（负）VM的响应十分显著，具体表现为比湿偏高（偏低）。输入此区域的水汽输送增多（减少），并且，此区域对流层基本上被异常上升（下沉）运动控制，有利于（不利于）降水发生。因此，本文的研究可能为春季美国东南部及墨西哥湾降水的季节预测提供新的预测因子。

英文摘要：

The sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） associated with the Victoria mode （VM） can persist into the following season and then influence climate variability in the tropical Pacific. This paper demonstrates the connection between the preceding boreal winter VM and precipitation in the following spring over the southeastern United States （SE USA） and the Gulf of Mexico （GM）. The results indicate that a positive （negative） preceding winter VM is usually followed by increased （reduced） precipitation over the SE USA and GM during the following spring. The corresponding mechanism is similar, but slightly different to, the seasonal footprinting mechanism. For positive VM cases, the preceding-winter VM-related SSTAs appear to persist into the following spring via air- sea interactions, which then induce low-level convergence and vigorous ascending motion, leading to an adjustment of the zonal and meridional circulation. This adjustment can then influence the local Hadley cell by weakening the downward branch. These anomalous patterns of vertical airflow enhance spring precipitation over the SE USA and GM under suitable moisture conditions. Hence, this work demonstrates that the preceding-winter VM has the potential to regulate precipitation over the SE USA and GM in the following spring.