中文摘要：

广义Hoek-Brown强度准则（简称GH-B准则）作为估计完整岩石或节理岩体剪切强度的半经验准则,已成为岩体强度预测及数值计算领域中应用最广的准则之一。经验公式中涉及3个与岩体特性有关的材料参数mb、s和a,实际应用中还不能直接对这3个参数进行精确取值,只能通过中间变量推导或结合地质经验来确定。为尽可能大地消除因用Hoek-Brown经验公式（简称H-B经验公式）的中间变量推导带来的累积误差,消除边坡稳定性评价结果的偏差,提出了从基本随机变量着手,考虑基本变量的可变性与不确定性,借助可靠性理论来综合分析评价边坡潜在破坏概率和风险程度的方法。研究基于GH-B准则的节理岩质边坡的可靠性问题,首先从决定H-B经验公式的4个基本参数GSI、σci、mi和D出发,研究变量的分布概型及取值范围,然后引入到H-B经验公式中去,利用有效地可靠性计算方法求解边坡的失稳概率,将统计矩点估计法（PEM法）引入到节理岩质边坡失稳概率的求解中,通过对一开挖桥墩承台边坡的可靠性分析表明,基于GH-B准则的PEM方法提高了稳定性评价的客观性,结果更加真实可靠。

英文摘要：

As a semi-empirical rule for estimating shear strength of integral rock or jointed rock masses, the Hoek-Brown failure criterion has been one of the most useful criteria in forecasting and stability analysis of rock masses strength. Three material parameters are included in the empirical formulas, such as mb, s and a. practically, however, the three parameters are not be accurately calculated, they can be determined only through the middle variable or with geological experiences. In order to eliminate the accumulative errors during the middle derivation, eliminate the deviation of the slope stability assessment results, a new method is put forward. Taking the basic random variables, considering their variability and uncertainty, the reliability theory was used to analyze and evaluate the failure probability and reliability index for the slope. The reliability for jointed rock slope was based on generalized GH-B criteria, firstly from the four basic parameters of GSI, ~rei, mi and D, the distribution of the variables was studied, and finally put into the H-B experience formula, the reliability calculation method was used to solve the failure probability. PEM as a highly efficient method, its results can satisfy the needs of the project, so, using the PEM to calculate the failure probability, through the analysis for a cutting pier slope, the results show that this method can improve the objectivity of the slope stability analysis, the result is more reliable.