中文摘要：

从可持续发展理论出发，选取影响水资源承载力变化最主要的驱动因子之一的人口要素进行重点分析评价，应用灰色系统模型对钱塘江流域人口变化趋势进行预测，并从人均水资源占有量、生活用水量指标出发，分析了流域人口发展的可持续性。结果表明：为了解决钱塘江流域水资源与人口需求之间的矛盾，应在有限的水资源条件下，大力推行节约用水，全面建设节水型社会，同时需要适当控制人口增长速度，为水资源的可持续利用创造良好的人口环境。

英文摘要：

Population elements, the most important driving factors that influence water resources carrying capacity, are analyzed comprehensively according to the theory of sustainable development. The grey model is selected to predict the trend of demographic changes in the Qiantang River basin. Meanwhile, the sustainability of population is evaluated based on the index of per capita possession of water resources and water consumption indicators of life. The results show that water conservation and a water--saving society should be promoted under the conditions of limited water resources in order to solve the conflict between water resources and human needs. Meanwhile, the population growth rate should be controlled to create a good environment for sustainable utilization of water resources.