中文摘要：

冰川、积雪和冻土变化产生的水文效应对下游水资源供给具有重要影响,近几十年来新疆区域洪水呈显著加重趋势,尤其是南疆区域洪水明显加剧.以天山南坡黄水沟与清水河寒区流域为研究区域,通过分析水文站极端水文事件,结合流域上游山区巴伦台气象站资料,研究了高寒山地流域在气候变化背景下极端水文过程出现时间、年最大和最小径流的响应特征.结果表明：1986年是水文过程的突变点,从1986年开始随着降水、气温的增加,河流径流量呈增加趋势;最大年径流出现时间从6月中下旬推迟到7月下旬;最大径流和最小径流与年径流量呈正相关关系,最大径流与夏季降水关系密切,而最小年径流与冬春季的气温关系密切.随着1986年以来的气温升高,冻土退化产生的水文效应使冬季径流增加明显,也使年最小径流明显增大;1986年以来降水变化决定着年径流量增加,使年最大径流集中出现在夏季且量级增大.总体来讲,20世纪80年代中期以后山区河流年极端洪峰量增大,洪水量增多,年际间变化幅度明显增大,从而对下游造成更严重的灾害.因此,加强气候变化对寒区流域水资源和洪水灾害的影响评估,使科学技术在减灾方面发挥主导作用.

英文摘要：

Hydrological effects of glaciers, snow and permafrost changes on the downstream water supply have result in a significant impact, showed a significant trend of increasing flood in recent decades, especially in the southern Xinjiang. Take the Huangshuigou River and Qingshui River Basins which located on the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains as the study areas, by the analysis of the extreme hydrological events, and combined with the meteorological data of the Baluntai Meteorological Stations in the upstream mountainous, the response charac- teristics of the extreme hydrological processes as annual peak flow occurred time, annual peak discharge and an- nual minimum flow in alpine cold watershed in the context of climate change was studied. The results showed that, year 1986 is the turning point of hydrological processes and climate change, from the beginning of 1986 with the increases of precipitation and temperature, the runoff showed an increasing trend; annual peak discharge occur from time postponed until mid-June to late July; have a positive correlation between the peak discharge and summer rainfall, while the winter and spring temperatures close to the minimum annual runoff. Since 1986 as the temperatures rise, hydrological effects of permafrost degradation, result in the winter runoff increased significant- ly, but also the minimum annual runoff increased significantly. Changes in precipitation results in the annual run- off increases since 1986, occurred time of the annual maximum runoff appear in the summer and the increasing magnitude of annual peak discharge. Overall, increased peak discharge, flood volume, and the magnitude of in- terannual peak discharge since the mid-year of 1980s, resulting in a more serious disaster for downstream. There- fore, the strengthening impact assessment of climate change on hydrological processes and flood disaster in cold watershed, so that science and technology play a leading role in disaster reduction.