中文摘要：

为了明确未来气候变化对半干旱区春小麦产量和品质的影响,本研究选择典型半干旱区定西试验基地,利用开放式红外增温模拟系统和水分控制装置设置不同降水量（减少20%、不变、增加20%）和温度梯度[大气温度（对照）、增加1.0℃、增加2.0℃、增加3.0℃],模拟气候变化对春小麦生长发育、产量及其构成因素和品质的影响.结果表明：当增温幅度小于2℃时,降水变化对春小麦穗粒数影响不显著;当增温为3℃时,降水减少显著减少穗粒数,降水增加显著增加穗粒数.随着气温升高,降水减少对春小麦千粒重的负效应增大,春小麦不孕小穗数与气温呈二次曲线上升.降水减少20%条件下,增温1、2和3℃的春小麦产量分别下降12.1%、24.7%、42.7%;降水不变条件下,春小麦产量分别下降8.4%、15.1%、21.8%;降水增加20%条件下,春小麦产量分别下降9.0%、15.5%、22.2%.春小麦籽粒淀粉含量随温度的增加而下降,籽粒蛋白质含量随温度的增加而上升.增温2℃有利于蚜虫暴发,但增温3℃抑制蚜虫暴发;春小麦锈病发病率随着温度增加而上升.

英文摘要：

In order to predict effects of climate changing on growth, quality and grain spring wheat, a field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of air temperature yields of increases （0 ℃, 1.0 ℃, 2.0 ℃ and 3.0 ℃ ） and precipitation variations （decrease 20%, unchanging and increase 20%） on grain yields, quality, diseases and insect pests of spring wheat at the Dingxi Arid Meteorology and Ecological Environment Experimental Station of the Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration（ 35035＇ N, 104037＇ E）. The results showed that effects of pre- cipitation variations on kernel numbers of spring wheat were not significant when temperature in- creased by less than 2.0 ℃, but was significant when temperature increased by 3.0 ℃. Temperature increase enhanced kernel numbers, while temperature decrease reduced kernel numbers. The nega- tive effect of temperature on thousand-kernel mass of spring wheat increased with increasing air tem- perature. The sterile spikelet of spring wheat response to air temperature was quadratic under allprecipitation regimes. Compared with control （no temperature yield of spring wheat when air temperature increased by 1.0 ℃ the three precipitation conditions （decrease 20%, no changing increase）, the decreases of grain , 2.0 ℃ and 3.0 ℃ under each of and increase 20%） were 12.1%, 24.7% and 42.7%, 8.4%, 15.1% and 21.8%, and 9.0%, 15.5% and 22.2%, respectively. The starch content of spring wheat decreased and the protein eontent inereased with inereasing air tem- perature. The number of aphids increased when air temperature increased by 2.0 ℃, but decreased when air temperature increased by 3.0 ℃. The infection rates of rust disease increased with increas- ing air temperature.