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中文摘要：
哥本哈根议程凸显出发展中国家与发达国家在国际气候谈判的博弈冲突性．借鉴Forgo的博弈树相关均衡概念，发展中国家和发达国家作为国际气候谈判主体，划分京都议定书时期，哥本哈根协议时期和未来长久时期，建立了哥本哈根国际气候谈判的序贯决策博弈模型．根据2007年IPCC第一工作组《第四次评估报告》的研究结论，建立CO2浓度与全球气温的线性回归模型和ARMA（4，2）预测模型，得出长期目标下各种减排路径的CO2浓度贡献值．结合谈判设定各国温室气体减排率，计算各减排路径的全球气温变化，运用线性规划GHGAME求解博弈树相关均衡结果．研究表明，根据前一时期减排进展采取相机调整的国际气候谈判方案，减排效果要好于谈判初期采取一揽子解决的方案；发达国家是否率先切实履行减排承诺，对全球气候变化控制效果至关重要．
英文摘要：
The agenda of Copenhagen in the international climate negotiation underlines the conflictbetween developed and developing countries. Learning from the tree-correlated equilibrium concept intro-duced by Forg5 （2005）, the paper chooses the developed countries group and the developing countries groupas two bodies of international climate negotiation. The international climate negotiation will be dividedinto three periods the Kyoto protocol period （2000-2012）, the Copenhagen protocol period （2013-2020）and the forever period （2021-2200）. So the sequential games model of the developing countries groupand developed countries group about Copenhagen climate negotiation is built. According to the IPCCFourth Assessment Report, the linear regression model between carbon dioxide concentration and globaltemperature and the prediction model of ARMA（4,2） are built, then the contribution values of carbondioxide concentration for various emission branches in 2200 are obtained. The global temperatures undervarious emission branches are computed with the corresponding emission reduction rates. The solutionof tree-correlated equilibrium is obtained by CHGAME linear programming. The results show that theinternational climate negotiating plan in terms of discretion according to the prior period progress is betterthan the package solution at the preliminary stage. Whether developed countries meet their responsibilitiesto cut emissions or not decides what happens to the control effect of global climate change.
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