中文摘要：

考虑滑面介质的流变特性结合滑坡监测资料,运用尖点突变模型中状态变量的突变来反映滑体的突滑,建立了一个滑坡时间预测模型。基于突变理论,分析了单滑面滑坡的失稳机制,分析结果表明：滑体突滑失稳的必要条件仅取决于滑动面剪切段介质和蠕滑段介质的刚度比。根据尖点突变理论的分叉集方程,得到了滑坡突变时间的计算公式,为滑坡预报提供了初步的理论依据。同时,根据能量转化原理,导出了滑体突滑初速度的计算公式。最后将理论模型应用于某实际的滑坡工程。

英文摘要：

Based on catastrophe theory and monitoring data,a time prediction model of landslides is established,in which the rheological behaviors of medium on the sliding surface are taken into account and the catastrophe of a state variable is applied to reflect the instability of landslides.It is found that the catastrophe properties of landslides are controlled by the stiffness ratio of mediums of a shear section to those of rheology section on the sliding surface.According to the bifurcation set of cusp catastrophe theory,the formulae to predict occurrence time of landslides is derived,which can be applied to forecast landslides.Moreover,the formulae of sliding velocity are obtained by using energy transformation theory.Finally,the present model is applied to predict occurrence time of certain landslide.