以江西省为例,在对城市化综合水平与生态环境综合质量进行测度的基础上。利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型,对其城市化与生态环境之间的关系进行了动态计量分析。研究显示:①改革开放以来,江西省城市化综合水平逐步提高,而江西省生态环境综合质量及其分量则呈现出各自变化特征;②江西省城市化综合水平变化是生态环境综合质量、生态环境压力、生态环境响应的格兰杰因果原因。而城市化综合水平提高与生态环境状态变化之间互不为格兰杰因果原因;③江西省生态环境综合质量指数、生态环境压力指数和生态环境响应指数的波动一直受到自身及城市化综合水平的影响,且受城市化综合水平的负冲击影响要小于自身波动的正影响,只是生态环境综合质量指数和生态环境压力指数受自身的影响到第8期以后都基本稳定,而同期生态环境响应指数受城市化综合水平波动的影响则逐步加强。
There are complex relationships between urbanization and the ecological environment in different regions and different phases of urbanization. This paper explores the interactive process and quantitative mechanisms in Jiangxi province. We describe the index systems and evaluate models of comprehensive indexes of urbanization level and ecological quality using Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Synthesis Method. The results demonstrate causal relationships between urbanization index and environmental indices using the Granger Causality Test Method. Finally, the paper analyzes the dynamic process from 1978 - 2005 with impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The comprehensive indices of urbanization level and ecological quality show that the level of urbanization in Jiangxi has been gradually increasing since the reform period, but the comprehensive index of ecological quality and its components exhibit different trends. The indices of ecological level and ecological resistance capacity show a similar pattern as the comprehensive index of ecological quality and exhibit a "U"-shaped curve, but the index of ecological pressure demonstrates periodic variation. The econometric results reveal that there are long-term relationships between indices of urbanization level and the indices of ecological pressure and ecological response, but there is not an integrated relationship between the indices of urbanization level and the index of ecological level. Also, the comprehensive level of urbanization shows Granger Causality between comprehensive ecological quality, ecological pressure and ecological response, but there is no relationship of Granger Causality between the comprehensive level of urbanization and the state of the ecological environment. Environmental effects result from not only the urbanization process, but also include the comprehensive quality of the ecological environment, ecological pressure and response. The negative impacts of urbanization have less effect than the positiv