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中文摘要：
目的为进一步提高城市工业需水量预测的应用水平。方法综合分析灰色GM（1，1）模型在需水预测应用中存在的问题，结合残差修正以及等维递补的原理，建立了改进的灰色模型以对城市工业需水量进行预测。结果基于两种不同的灰色模型，得出了宝鸡市城市工业需水量的两组不同的预测值，并对该预测结果进行了精度检验与对比分析。结论建立改进的灰色模型通用性较好，在数据变化较大的情况下使用，仍具有较好的预测精度，取得了较为满意的预测结果，有益于区域水资源综合规划以及中长期供水计划的制定。
英文摘要：
Aim To discuss the water for economy and development of big cities in our country and to predict future water demand accurately so as to solve the problem of water shortage, a key problem in city development. Methods After analyzing the problems in application of gray GM （ 1,1 ） model synthetically, an improved gray prediction model of water demand in industry is built on residual error correction and equi-dimensional supplement theory. Resuits The water demand in industry of Baoji City is predicted by different models, and the prediction results are tested and contrasted. Conclusion The examination indicated that the improved gray model has good applicability. It can get good prediction precision and result especially on the occasion of big fluctuant of the data. The model mentioned above will have certain values on the development of regional water resource general programming and medium-long term water supply project.
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