以山东省沂水县为例,综合历史资料、GIS与定量分析法,以农村居民点建村的时间、所处的地貌类型以及建村时的农户来源地3个指标,系统考察隋朝至1949年农村居民点的时空格局变化及驱动力。结果表明:沂水县1949年的1484个农村居民点,最早建村于隋朝。随着时间的推移,农村居民点建村速率先快后慢,呈倒"U"型演变,明朝建村速率最快。同时,每个朝代初期建村速率较快,后期较慢;随着时间的推移,沂水县农村居民点建村速率快于县域整体农村居民点建村速率的地貌类型沿着平原—丘陵—山地的地貌格局演进,建村时的农户来源地沿着省外—县外—县内的地域格局演进。驱动力研究认为,人地关系状况是影响农村居民点时间格局变化的主导驱动力,战争、政策及气候灾害等通过影响人地关系状况,影响着农村居民点短时间尺度的格局变化;耕地资源禀赋是农村居民点空间格局变化的主导驱动力,农户建村首先选择耕地资源禀赋优越的平原,随着人地矛盾增加,逐步向丘陵和山地转移。
Taking Yishui county of Shandong province as a survey region, historical materials, GIS technology and quantitative methods were used to conduct research on the spatio-temporal evolution of Yishui rural settlements from Sui dynasty to 1949 (the period of New China founded). In this study, three indices- the settled time and topography types of rural settlements, and the source regions of rural households of the new rural settlements- were selected to analyze the driving forces of the spatio-temporal evolution of rural settlements. The results revealed the following: (1) There were 1484 rural settlements of Yishui county in 1949. The rural settlements of Yishui settled as early as the Sui dynasty. (2) According to the statistical analysis of rural settlements in different periods, the number of rural settlements continued to grow during the whole study period and the growth incidence of the Ming dynasty was the highest. As time goes on, the growth incidence of rural settlements showed an inverted "U" shaped pattern. New rural settlements were built in every period, but concentrated in the Ming and Qing dynasties, especially, the Ming dynasty the number new rural settlements came to a peak. (3) In terms of spatial distribution, new rural settlements were firstly found in plain areas, then in hilly areas, and lastly they appeared in mountainous areas. The residents of new rural settlements firstly came from regions outside the province, then outside the county, and lastly inside the county. (4) The key factors driving the evolution of rural settlements included man-land relationship and cultivated land resources. In the short-term scale, wars, policies and climatic disasters influenced the evolution of rural settlements through driving man-land relationship. New rural settlements firstly appeared in plain areas with rich cultivated land. Then residents gradually moved to and settle in hilly and mountainous areas.