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中文摘要：
黄河高寒区水资源受气候变化影响,自演化过程中表现出持续性、波动性等非平稳特征。水文条件异方差即ARCH效应的存在,增加了寒旱区水资源管理的风险和不确定性。本文以黄河源区出口控制站-吉迈水文站1958-2011年,共计54年水文资料为研究基础,分析水文条件异方差性存在特性、来源及对于区域水资源管理的影响;建立能够反映ARCH效应的水文过程预报模型,进一步提高预报精度、为区域水资源管理提供可靠基础。
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