中文摘要：

煤层气抽采量的准确预测,对煤层气开发利用工作的科学决策和发展规划具有重要意义。通过灰色系统理论与马尔可夫理论的结合,建立灰色马尔可夫模型对煤层气抽采量进行预测分析。首先建立煤层气抽采量的GM（1,1）预测模型,确定其变动趋势和初始预测值,然后应用马尔可夫理论对初始预测结果进行修正,最后通过实例计算验证了灰色马尔可夫模型的适用性。结果表明,灰色马尔可夫模型的预测精度明显高于传统GM（1,1）,更适用于随机波动性较大的序列预测问题,因此将灰色马尔可夫模型用于煤层气抽采量预测是合理和可行的。

英文摘要：

Predicting the productivity of coal bed methane precisely would be significant for the scientific decision and development plan in the process of development and utilization of coal bed methane.Based on the combination of Grey forecasting theory with Markov chain theory,the Grey Markov model is established to forecast the productivity of coal bed methane.Firstly GM（1,1） model of coal bed methane productivity is built to determine the trend and predominant value.On this basis,the prediction result is modified by use of Markov chain theory.Finally the example indicates the feasibility of new model.The results show that the precision based on Grey Markov model is higher than GM（1,1）.The Grey Markov model is more suitable for prediction with big fluctuation.The use of Grey Markov model in the prediction of coal bed methane productivity is reasonable and feasible.