中文摘要：

为了研究艾比湖绿洲地区降水变化特征,利用4个气象观测站1960-2013年的逐月降水资料,运用趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、T检验、小波分析和GIS空间分析等方法,对艾比湖绿洲地区近54年降水的趋势性、突变性和周期性进行综合分析。结果表明：近54年来,艾比湖绿洲地区年降水量呈7.95 mm/10 a速率增加,四季降水量变化与年降水量变化趋势基本相同,呈春秋微增,夏冬强增的特点;通过M-K检验发现,艾比湖绿洲地区年降水量在1986年发生了增加突变,但未发生显著趋势性变化;小波分析结果表明艾比湖绿洲降雨在长时间序列中呈多时间尺度特征,变化较大。通过以上分析,近54年艾比湖绿洲地区总体气候呈湿润化趋势。

英文摘要：

In order to study the variation characteristic of precipitation in the Aibi lake oasis, according to the monthly precipitation data from four meteorological stations during 1960 to 2013, the climate trend analysis method, Mann-Kendall Mutation Test Method, the Wavelet Analysis Method and GIS Spatial analysis are used to comprehensively analyze the tendency, mutability and periodicity of the precipitation of the oasis in recent 54 years. The results show that： in recent 54 years, the annul precipitation of Aibi lake oasis increases at the rate of 7.95 mm/10 a, the change trend of the seasonal precipitation is consistent with annual precipitation, the change characteristic is slight increasing in spring and autumn and strong increasing in summer and winter. Through the Mann-Kendall Mutation Test, it is found that an increasing mutation of the annul precipitation appeared in 1986 in Aibi lake oasis, while there has no obvious trend changes of the precipitation of the basin. Through wavelet analysis, it is found that the precipitation of Aibi lake oasis shows multiple time scale change features in long time sequence and the variation is large. In general, the climate in Aibi lake Oasis changed to be more humid in recent 54 years.