中文摘要：

提出一种不确定情况下考虑活动工期风险和多资源约束风险的缓冲大小计算方法.首先,运用贝叶斯网络技术分析关键风险因素,评估其造成的活动工期风险;其次,通过资源流网络方法衡量资源约束风险,进而提出合理的缓冲配置方法以构建稳定的关键链调度计划.通过算例分析和比较研究,验证了所提出方法兼具有效性和实用性,能够在保证较高按时完工率的同时,有效缩短项目工期并保持进度计划稳定.

英文摘要：

A buffer sizing method considering the activity duration risk as well as the multi-resource constraint risk under uncertainty is proposed. First of all, the key risk factors are identified and the activity duration risk is effectively assessed by using Bayesian networks. Then, the resource constraint risk is appropriately determined by using the resource flow networks. And a reasonable buffer sizing approach is developed for the construction of a stable critical chain scheduling plan. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method which is capable of maintaining the schedule stability with a short project makespan, while ensuring a high on-time completion rate.