基于1959—2007年贵州省19个气象台站的逐日平均气温资料,结合倒春寒强度指数指标和灾害等级划分标准,从倒春寒发生频率、站次比、年代际变化、气候突变、周期变化等方面,分析了贵州省倒春寒的时空演变特征.结果表明:1959—2007年,研究区无倒春寒发生的频率最大,其次为重级以上倒春寒,中级和轻级倒春寒的发生频率接近;在全球变暖背景下,研究期间贵州省发生中级倒春寒的站次比变化最明显,其气候倾向率达1.4%.(10a)-1,而无倒春寒、轻级和重级以上倒春寒的站次比则略微减少;贵州省倒春寒强度在20世纪90年代最强,20世纪80年代次强,2000—2007年最弱,20世纪70年代次弱,20世纪60年代居中;研究期间贵州省西部和西北部高海拔地区、中部和北部地区的倒春寒强度呈增强趋势,而东部、南部地区的倒春寒强度呈略微降低的趋势;贵州省西部、西北部、中部和北部地区的倒春寒强度在1975年发生由低值向高值的突变;贵州省倒春寒存在明显的周期波动特征,年际周期以2~4年为主,年代际周期以13~15年和27~29年为主.
Based on the 1959-2007 observation data of daily mean temperature from 19 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province,and combining with the late spring cold(LSC) intensity index and disaster grade division standard,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of LSC,including LSC occurrence frequency,ratio of LSC-occurring stations to all stations,decadal variation,abrupt climate change,and periodic variation,in the province.In 1959-2007,the occurrence frequency of no LSC in the province was the highest,followed by serious LSC,and that of medium and slight LSC was approximately the same.Under the background of global warming,the ratio of medium LSC-occurring stations to all stations had the most obvious variation,with the climatic trend reached 1.4%·(10 a)-1,while the ratios of no LSC-,slight LSC-,and serious LSC-occurring stations all showed an appreciably decreasing trend.The LSC intensity in the province was the highest in the 1990s,followed by in the 1980s,1960s,1970s,and 2000-2007.In the province,the LSC intensity showed an increasing trend in west and northwest high altitude areas,central area,and north area,but an appreciably decreasing trend in east and south areas.In the west,northwest,north,and central areas of the province,LSC intensity had a mutation from low to high in 1975.The LSC in the province had an obvious periodical variation,with the inter-annual period being mainly 2-4 years,and the decadal periods being mainly 13-15 years and 27-29 years.