以中亚地区的油气资源及其对中国能源战略的影响为研究对象,以双方的油气资源数据为基础,对中亚地区油气资源的分布、储产、贸易现状及开发潜力进行了分析,解析了中国油气资源的储产、消费及进口现状,并对现有的油气资源进口战略进行了评估。研究表明:中亚地区油气资源储产丰富、出口比重高、开发潜力大,储产与贸易主要在哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦三国;中国的油气资源无法满足发展需求,且进口面临着源地、种类、运输方式单一的三大问题;中亚地区对中国的能源战略有着积极意义,表现在能有效弥补油气资源缺口、促进进口多元化战略的实现、顺应低碳发展趋势并降低国际油价波动的影响、促进西部大开发并保障"西气东输"的实施4个方面。
The oil and gas resources in Central Asia are very abundant, thus, enhancing the cooperation with Cen- tral Asia in oil and gas resources has a significantly positive meaning for China. Based on the oil and gas resources data of Central Asia and China, this paper analyses the current situation and the development potential in the future of the oil and gas resources in Central Asia, as well as the characteristics and exiting problems of importing strategy of China' s oil and gas resources. Some significant results and new facts are obtained, we find that in Central Asia, the storage, production, export ratio and development potential of oil and gas resources are all great. In terms of geo- graphical distribution, the oil and gas resources of Central Asia principally centralized in the Caspian Basin, Aral Sea Basin, South Turgai Basin, Syr Rivers Basin and Fergana Basin. In terms of country distribution, which mainly concentrate in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. By the end of 2011, the storage of oil and gas resources in the above-mentioned 3 countries has reached 4.1 billion tons and 27.8 trillion cubic meters, respectively, accounting for 99.82% and 99.96% of the total storage in Central Asia. The total export volumes are 77.2 million tons and 52.5 billion cubic meters, respectively, accounting for 79.83% and 38.66% of the total production. The total production volumes will probably reach 147 million tons and 160-180 billion cubic meters respectively, and 120 million tons and 100-110 billion cubic meters will be used to export by 2020, moreover, the number will probably reach 200 mil- lion tons and 200-250 billion cubic meters, and 150 million tons and 160-200 billion cubic meters respectively in 2030. Among which the oil and gas exported to China from Central Asia will reach 40 million tons and 70-80 billion cubic meters respectively in 2020, and 60 million tons and 100 billion cubic meters in 2030, if so, Central Asia will become one of the most important oil and gas source for China. China' s dom