虽然日本对海外原油高度依赖,但在近30年的油价波动中并未显现严重的经济震荡。针对该现象,通过对日本GDP、国民经济核算支出法五部门以及特色行业的三层次递进分析尝试进行经济学解释,发现:1985年之前,日本经济尚符合油价上涨时GDP下降的典型特征;1986--2010年,油价上涨未给消费部门带来显著效应,却给投资以及出口部门带来正效应,由于消费部门的GDP占比下降,投资与出口部门的占比上升,最终造成GDP未发生明显震荡的结果。深入至汽车产业,油价上涨后日本的汽车出口显著增加,这是导致出口部门正效应的一个重要来源。合理的经济增长结构以及产品的低能耗特点是日本经济抵御油价冲击的重要支撑,而深层次原因在于日本能源供应结构的优化与充足的原油储备。
Japan is heavily dependent on overseas crude oil; however, in the recent 30 years, the oil price fluctuations in the world market have never caused severe upheaval of Japanese economy. Based on an analysis on the levels of impulse response functions of GDP, five terms of expenditure accounting of Japanese economy and characteristic industries in oil price shocks, it can be discovered that prior to 1985, Japan's economy had showed typical responses to oil price shocks. During 1986- 2010, oil price rises had not imposed significant effect on the consumption sector, but imposed positive effect on investment and export sectors. Because of decreasing share of consumption sector and increasing shares of investment and export sectors, Japanese economy had not greatly influenced by oil price shocks. As for the automobile industry, Japan' s automobile export had increased with the rise of the oil price, which served as an positive source for export sector. Fine economic structure and products of low energy consumption contribute the Japanese economic stability in oil price fluctuation, while the underlying reasons are Japan' s optimization of energy supply structure and the substantial oil reserve.