中文摘要：

本文使用2004～2010年WiND数据库的证券分析师评级数据和CSMAR数据库的回报率数据，检验证券分析师一致评级变化在市场和行业层面是否具有信息含量。研究发现：分析师一致评级月变化和向前一月的月市场超额回报呈显著负相关，行业分析师一致评级月变化和向前一月的行业月超额回报呈显著负相关。这说明分析师一致荐股意见对未来市场和行业超额回报具有一定的预测能力。本文是对近年来关于分析师荐股意见文献的有益补充，为我国分析师荐股意见在市场和行业层面具有信息含量提供了经验证据。

英文摘要：

This paper investigates whether changes in analysts＇ consensus stock recommendations contain market-level and industry-level information. The analysts＇ rating data come from the WIND database and the returns data come from the CSMAR database from 2004 to 2010. We find that changes in analysts＇ consensus stock recommendations are negatively correlated with one-month-ahead market excess returns and so happen at the industry level as well. It indicates that analysts＇ consensus stock recommendations have predictive ability at market and industry level. This paper is a useful supplement to the recent literature on analyst recommendations, and also provides evidences for changes in analysts＇ consensus stock recommendations containing market-level and industry-level information in China＇s stock market.