中文摘要：

通过建立有向加权网络模型，分析供应链担保圈的网络结构对风险传染的作用机理，并以调和距离衡量企业间担保关系，解释担保圈的两面性——风险分担和风险连坐。研究结果表明担保圈网络结构和风险传染关系具有相变的特征。当风险低于一定阈值，高度连通的网络中担保关系的多样化能够有效保持网络的稳定性。当风险高于一定阈值，高度连通的网络反而构成风险传染的路径，其稳定性和弹性大大降低。企业间担保关系具有非线性的特征，担保圈网络结构对风险传染的作用机制取决于企业间调和距离。

英文摘要：

Based on directed and weighted network, this paper investigates how risk contagion is affected by the configura- tion of guarantee circle in supply chain, focuses on the influence of network configuration on the stability and resilience of guarantee circle. By model analysis, this article shows that as long as the magnitude of risk is sufficiently small, a more densely connected network contributes to improve system stability; beyond a certain point, network interconnection serves as a mechanism for risk contagion. Because of the non-linear of interfirm interaction, the effect of network configuration on risk contagion relies on interfirm harmonic distance.