中文摘要：

基于新疆于田县15个乡（镇）1200名农户的调查数据,在纠正气候变化适应性政策参与变量和气候变化适应性政策类型变量可能存在内生性偏误后,采用三阶段回归分析模型综合检验了以政府为主导核心的外界干预适应性政策对农业生产的影响。研究结果表明：农户的决策过程和决策类型同时影响着生产的投入和产出。而不同的社会经济变量、空间环境变量和实物资本变量对农户生产要素支出和产出也有着显著性影响。适应性政策效果与农户的选择行为、个体特征、所在区位、资本投入等关系紧密,是影响农业投入与产出的重要因素。政府应该保证农户可获得足够的资金支持,继续加强水利等基础设施建设,加强农户的教育和培训力度。积极推进上述外界干预适应性政策有助于提高农户应对各种极端自然灾害和气候变化的适应能力和农业生产水平。

英文摘要：

Based on the data collected from a survey of 1200 farmers in 15 villages and towns across Yutian county of Xinjiang,this study examines the effect of the adaptive policies of climate change intervention guided by the government,by applying the three- phase regression model after correcting possible endogenic errors in the participatory and the categorical variables of the policies. The study shows that： both the procedure and category of the farmers＇ decision- making have bearing on the input and output of their production. In addition,different social and economic variables,spatial and setting variables,and material capital variables also have salient bearing on farmers＇ expenditure on and output of the production factors. The government should provide farmers with sufficient fund support,continue to develop infrastructure,such as water conservancy projects,strengthen education and training for farmers. To actively carry out the above adaptive policies will facilitate raising farmers＇ adaptability to extreme natural disasters and climate change as well as their production.