中文摘要：

本文首先测算了1998年7月至2012年9月期间全国房地产市场中存在的资产泡沫与价格泡沫,而后运用非线性Threshold-VAR模型,以M2供给增长率作为门限变量,考察了不同货币供给水平下,货币调控政策对房地产泡沫所产生的影响。研究结果表明,我国货币调控政策对房地产泡沫影响存在明显的非线性特征,且价格泡沫的门限值要高于资产泡沫门限值;并且从全国范围内来看,无论是资产泡沫还是价格泡沫,在考察期内均不满足破裂条件。

英文摘要：

This paper estimated asset bubble and price bubbles in the real estate market between July 1998 and September 2012, and then investigated impact of monetary control policies on the real estate bubble under different levels of money supply with the nonlinear Threshold-VAR model, which made M2 supply growth as a threshold variable. The result shows that the impact of China＇s monetary policies on the real estate bubble is obvious nonlinear, and threshold of asset bubble is higher than price bubble＇ s threshold. From nationwide perspective, no matter asset bubbles or price bubbles, the conditions of the bubble burst is not met in the study period.