中文摘要：

采用历史灾情分析、统计、水文模型及水动力模型等方法，分析富水流域上游历史洪水过程特点、致洪降水时程特征；以年最大致洪降水序列为基础，采用耿贝尔极值I型分布法求取上游不同重现期面雨量，运用新安江模型模拟100a一遇暴雨诱发的洪水流量线，并以此为基础，分析下游洪涝风险，模拟溃堤风险下的淹没情景。结果表明:富水上游一个洪水过程持续24～72h，多为单峰型；暴雨诱发的洪水过程占总数77%，诱发洪水的暴雨多为区域性强降水，100a一遇致洪暴雨过程诱发的洪水可使库水位超过历史最高水位；在设计的溃口条件下，阳新县部分村镇有淹没风险。

英文摘要：

Historical flood process, flood characteristics and precipitation characteristics of Fushui River reservoir upstream were analyzed by using historical disaster analysis, statistical method, and hydrological and hydrodynamic models. Based on the biggest flood-inducing precipitation sequence, different return periods of surface precipitations at upstream were obtained by using Gumbel extreme value type I distribution method. Based on the rainfall-induced flood flow line of annual frequency simulated by using Xin'anjiang model, downstream flood risk was analyzed, and the flood situation of dike-break risk was also analyzed by using hydrodynamic model. The results show that rainfall-induced flood accounted for 77% of the total process. Rainstorm process of rainfall-induced flood was mainly regional heavy rain. The flood caused by 100-year return period rainstorm process can make the water level exceed the maximum water level record. In the design of the breach, some villages and towns in Yangxin county have the risk of flooding.