中文摘要：

为探讨非一致性洪水频率分析方法,选取1960-2009年西北江三角洲主要控制水文站马口站和三水站逐年最大日流量序列,运用基于时变矩（TVM）的方法,研究了西北江三角洲地区非一致性洪水频率分析问题,就指定设计流量下重现期变化和指定重现期下设计流量变化进行分析,揭示了变化环境背景下设计洪水的响应规律,并与传统水文频率分析方法结果进行对比,结果表明：1 TVM方法考虑到水文序列特征参数随时间发生变化,能较好反映变化环境下水文要素特征值的非一致性特征;2西北江三角洲马口站和三水站指定流量标准下重现期越来越短,而指定重现期标准下设计流量值越来越大,这一现象与近年来该地区极端水文事件频发的事实相符。

英文摘要：

The time-varying moment（ TVM） was used to analyze the non-stationary flood frequency in the North River and West River Delta and its response to the changing environment using the annual peak discharge records of Makou and Sanshui stations from 1960 to 2009. In comparison with traditional frequency analysis,TVM takes into consideration of varying characteristic parameters of hydrological time series and therefore gives better results reflecting the evolution character on the changing environment.The return period decreases with the appointed design discharges,while the design discharge increases significantly with the appointed return period,which is consistent with the phenomenon of more and more extreme hydrologic events in the North River and West River Delta in recent years.