本文应用LM结构突变检验以及Gregory—Hansen等变结构协整方法,对人民币汇率购买力平价问题进行了重新研究。研究发现样本期内人民币汇率发生了两次结构突变,第一次发生在2005年7月,第二次发生在2006年12月。LM检验显示,发生了结构突变的汇率数据生成过程仍为单位根过程,意味着某些经济冲击确实对数据生成过程(DGP)产生了实质影响。进一步对比研究发现,在未考虑结构突变情况下,样本期内购买力平价不成立;但在考虑结构突变情况下,两种变结构协整方法都支持购买力平价成立。
Based on LM structural change test and other eointegration tests such as the cointegration test of Gregory- Hansen, this thesis makes a re - research on RMB purchasing power parity and discovers that within the sample period from January 2000 to December 2008 the RMB exchange rate gets two structure changes, one taking place in July 2005 and the other in December 2006. The further comparative study shows that without the consideration of the structural change, the purchasing power parity between China and America doesn't hold during the sample periodl however, with the consideration of the structural change, both the cointegration with structural change of Gregory- Hansen and the cointegration of Johansen which introduces the virtual variables of structural change prove the existence of the purchasing power parity between China and America.